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Featured BlogsLatest News!Written By Comment Count Comment Last Three February 08, 2010
Shane D'Aprile
In the unlikely event that you haven’t yet seen it, California Republican Carly Fiorina’s Senate campaign released a curious three and a half minute web video last week. It takes aim at her GOP primary opponent Tom Campbell, calling him a “fiscal conservative in name only.”
The video has all your standard attack ad elements—sheep falling from pillars in the sky after an ominous lightening strike, not to mention the guy in a sheep suit complete with glowing red Demon eyes. Ok, so the ad is just a bit outside the box. But so is the man who made it—Republican ad guru Fred Davis. In the unlikely event that you haven’t yet seen it, California Republican Carly Fiorina’s Senate campaign released a curious three and a half minute web video last week. It takes aim at her GOP primary opponent Tom Campbell, calling him a “fiscal conservative in name only.”
The video has all your standard attack ad elements—sheep falling from pillars in the sky after an ominous lightening strike, not to mention the guy in a sheep suit complete with glowing red Demon eyes... Ok, so the ad is just a bit outside the box. But so is the man who made it—Republican ad guru Fred Davis. “We went out on a limb a little bit,” Davis tells Politics. “But boy did we stir the pot.” When you think about it, Demon Sheep and Davis aren’t all that unlikely of a pairing. Davis is not only no stranger to the Hail Mary Pass-type campaign ad, he seems to love it. Davis created one of the most talked about ads of the ’08 presidential cycle for the campaign of Sen. John McCain—the Paris Hilton “celebrity ad” as it came to be known. Davis was also behind the so-called “Godless ad” in the Elizabeth Dole vs. Kay Hagen North Carolina Senate race. And in 2002, Davis created an ad for underdog Georgia gubernatorial candidate Sonny Perdue that many credit as key to his eventual victory. Davis depicted longtime Gov. Roy Barnes as “King Roy,” a Godzilla-like giant rat stomping through Georgia’s cities leaving destruction in his wake. While the Demon Sheep ad was widely panned by the Campbell campaign and his online strategists—Patrick Ruffini and Mindy Finn of Engage—Davis says he’s thrilled with the buzz its created. “The hubbub over what got the message in front of people eventually dies down,” says Davis. “But they remember the message.” As for whether or not Demon Sheep could make another appearance during the primary race, Davis says no one has ruled it out. But, he notes, it’s not as though the campaign hasn’t tried the more traditional route, too. “We put a bio film on the website last week” says Davis. “Has one person even seen it? I probably should have put some demonic sheep in that one.” Shane D'Aprile is senior editor at Politics magazine. He can be reached at sdaprile@politicsmagazine.com. -
February 05, 2010
Jordan Lieberman
Campaigns & Elections' Politics Magazine today announced that it will be launching a Canadian edition beginning next month. The magazine will be a state-of-the-art digital edition and will be distributed electronically.
This launch, along with the recently unveiled Latin American edition, joins the U.S. flagship publication in broadening the reach of Campaigns & Elections by tens of thousands of political and public affairs professionals throughout the hemisphere. “Readership of the original Campaigns & Elections’ Politics Magazine in Canada has always been strong,” said Jordan Lieberman, the publisher of Politics. This will build on decades of success and ensure that information about important developments in the world of politics, campaigns and elections are accessible to all.” Campaigns & Elections' Politics Magazine today announced that it will be launching a Canadian edition beginning next month. The magazine will be a state-of-the-art digital edition and will be distributed electronically.
This launch, along with the recently unveiled Latin American edition, joins the U.S. flagship publication in broadening the reach of Campaigns & Elections by tens of thousands of political and public affairs professionals throughout the hemisphere. “Readership of the original Campaigns & Elections’ Politics Magazine in Canada has always been strong,” said Jordan Lieberman, the publisher of Politics. This will build on decades of success and ensure that information about important developments in the world of politics, campaigns and elections are accessible to all.” The Canadian edition of Politics will borrow from parts of the U.S. publication, as well as develop unique Canadian content that will be written by Canadian experts. “I am delighted that Campaigns & Elections have decided add a Canadian edition of Politics to their growing list of magazines,” said Bernie Morton, the magazine’s Canadian Associate Editor. “Now Canadians—and the world—can have a specific place to read about the latest in Canadian politics, campaigns, and elections. There is great excitement among political junkies about this news and I am honoured to be a part of it." The Canadian Editorial Advisory Board, in development, currently includes Canadian political notables Anie Perrault, John Capobianco, Robin Sears, and Don Guy. Included in the growing list of regular contributors will be Warren Kinsella, President of Daisy Consulting Group, who will provide readers with insight on the challenges and decision making during campaigns in his column titled “In the War Room,” as well as Brett Bell, Principal of Grassroots Online, who will enlighten readers about online campaigning and social media in modern politics with his column “Open Source.” Founded in 1980 by Stanley Foster Reed, Campaigns & Elections’ Politics magazine (www.politicsmagazine.com) covers the strategies, techniques, and personalities of modern politics. It is read by thousands of federal, state and local elected officials, candidates for public office, party activists, issue campaigners, political consultants, campaign staffs, lobbyists, PAC directors, university professors, news reporters and numerous behind-the-scenes opinion makers. Politics magazine is the pre-eminent magazine dedicated to educating, informing, entertaining and connecting all those who touch politics, from high-profile players to political junkies and casual observers. The magazine is published by Political World Communications, LLC, under the parent company MJH & Associates. MJH & Associates is a leading provider of publishing, research, information, and education for the medical, financial, and political industries. MJH & Associates serves the needs of hundreds of thousands of political professionals, physicians, nurses, pharmacists, and managed care professionals through an extensive suite of magazines, journals, e-mail databases, websites, events, and personal meetings. With names like The American Journal of Managed Care, Pharmacy Times, MDNG, Oncology & Biotech News, and HCPlive.com as part of our publishing group, we reach more than a half million readers each month. Canadian readers may receive the magazine at no charge here: politicsmagazine.com/trial/ - ## - For more information: Bernie Morton, Associate Editor - Canada bmorton@politicsmagazine.com 416.723.5533 About the Canadian Editorial Advisory Board Anie Perrault A lawyer by training, Anie Perrault is President of Communications Anie Perrault (CAP). She specialized in communications for science and technology organizations and has recently concentrated her work in her region (Easter Townships region in Québec), working particularly for wine producers. Ms. Perrault was Vice-President, Communications, of Genome Canada from April 2001 to December 2004 and was responsible for all communications and public relations of the corporation, particularly those with the public, governments and the academic and scientific communities. This included developing and implementing complex communications strategies and working in a national multifaceted environment. Ms. Perrault was also responsible for the development of Genome Canada’s public education programs as well as its media relations, website, publications and special projects. Before joining Genome Canada in April 2001, Ms. Perrault served for almost two years as national Director of Communications and Public Affairs for Canada's Research-Based Pharmaceutical Companies, Rx&D, a national association representing the pharmaceutical research industry. Ms. Perrault was also involved in federal politics and served, from June 1998 to October 1999, as Attachée de presse and Senior Advisor to the Right Honourable Joe Clark, P.C., M.P. She also worked as Special Advisor to Peter MacKay, M.P. (1997) and the Hon. Jean J. Charest (1989-1991; 1995 referendum; 1996-1997). From 1992 to 1995, Ms. Perrault practiced law in Montreal at the law firm Davis, Ward, Phillips & Vineberg. Ms. Perrault was elected as a municipal councillor for the city of Bromont, Québec in November, 2009. Her responsibilities as city councillor include economic development, the Bromont TechnoParc and the recent addition of the MicroElectronic Research Centre, tourisms and international events, and all communication issues. John Capobianco John Capobianco has been involved in the political process for over 20 years and has built a solid reputation and an extensive network in all three levels of Canadian government. As well, John has spent close to 10 years in the financial sector. In 1995, John moved to the provincial government serving an Ontario Member of Provincial Parliament, a Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing and the Minister of Education. For the past nine years, John has worked in the government relations and public affairs industry serving clients in all the major industry sectors. He is Senior Vice President, Public Affairs for Edelman Canada. John's penchant for federal politics and his recognition across the country as a leader in the conservative movement led him to be recruited from the National Blue Committee to serve both on the Steering Committee of the United Alternative, and as a National Councillor for the Canadian Alliance Party. His activism has made him a well-known figure in Canadian politics and as a regular commentator and political analyst in the media. John ran unsuccessfully as the federal Conservative candidate for the Toronto-area riding of Etobicoke-Lakeshore in both the 2004 and 2006 elections. John earned his BA in Political Science and Economics at York University. He continues to speak at various political and public affairs conferences, and has presented at Campaign & Elections seminars in Washington, D.C. He currently sits on the Board of the Albany Club of Toronto, is the President of The Canadian Club of Toronto, President of the Public Affairs Association of Canada, and Chair of the Board for the National Broadcast Reading Services Inc. Robin Sears Robin Sears is a Senior Partner with Navigator Ltd., a strategy and public affairs firm. As a senior communications and public affairs advisor with experience on three continents, Robin has led client teams in healthcare, financial services, media and in international democratic development. As national director of the New Democratic Party, Sears built their policy making infrastructure, first issues publication, and first national direct mail fundraising . As national campaign director he managed their three most successful national elections. Deputy Secretary General of the world's largest organization of political parties, under German Chancellor Willy Brandt, he was responsible for communications, finance, Asia, Africa, and the Caribbean. Robin worked with leaders in the Middle East, Central America, and Southern Africa As Chief of Staff to Bob Rae, during the "Accord" government he managed the relationship between the Peterson cabinet and the NDP. As Ontario's senior diplomatic representative in Asia, he managed seven offices from Tokyo to India, promoting trade, investment and tourism. For a global executive search firm, Robin managed regional and global practices in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Toronto. He was the first Asia president of the pioneering digital search firm, Futurestep, for two of those years. He is a senior writer for Policy Options magazine, Canada's leading policy journal, and a regular guest on CBC Newsworld's Politics. Don Guy Don Guy has been described in Canadian national media as a “policy wizard” and as “the brightest guy in Canada right now” for his deep insight into the nexus of public opinion, policy and communications. He has also been called “arguably the most successful Liberal strategist of the post-Chretien era”. As President & CEO of Pollara Strategic Insights until December 2009, Don provided research-based strategic advice to a select group of clients. Today, Mr. Guy serves as strategic consultant to Fortune 500 and leading Canadian companies and CEOs on a wide range of image, branding and corporate reputation campaigns and issues. Politically, Don’s research-tailored strategic counsel has helped candidates win hundreds of local, provincial and federal races across North America since 1993. Most recently, Don served as campaign director for Michael Ignatieff’s successful 2008 Liberal Party of Canada leadership campaign. The Toronto Star calls him “the brilliant strategist” and “central architect” of consecutive majority election victories for Premier Dalton McGuinty’s Ontario Liberal Party in 2003 and 2007. After the 2003 election victory, Don entered the Ontario government as Chief of Staff to the Premier, a position he left to run the successful re-election campaign four years later. He will reprise that role for the 2011 Ontario general election. Don has a B.A. (Hon) from Carleton University and an M.A. from the University of Toronto, where he also pursued doctoral studies in political behavior. -
February 02, 2010
James Klatell
Joined by a few hundred of our friends, sources and clients, the Politics magazine family handed out the 2010 Reed Awards on Friday night in Washington, D.C.
The Reed Awards, sponsored this year by Aristotle, recognize excellence in campaign management, political consulting and political technology. There were more than 50 categories for television ads, direct mail, GOTV operations and new media. The competition also includes 10 special categories such as “Best Campaign Comeback,” “Best Villain Used in Political Media” and “Most Explosive Collaboration of the Year.” For those of you who weren’t able to attend, we’ve posted all the winning entries on politicsmagazine.com. Joined by a few hundred of our friends, sources and clients, the Politics magazine family handed out the 2010 Reed Awards on Friday night in Washington, D.C.
The Reed Awards, sponsored this year by Aristotle, recognize excellence in campaign management, political consulting and political technology. There were more than 50 categories for television ads, direct mail, GOTV operations and new media. The competition also includes 10 special categories such as “Best Campaign Comeback,” “Best Villain Used in Political Media” and “Most Explosive Collaboration of the Year.” For those of you who weren’t able to attend, we’ve posted all the winning entries on politicsmagazine.com. PHONES | NEWSPAPER ADS | POLITICAL TECHNOLOGY | DIRECT MAIL RADIO ADS | SIGNS & LOGOS | SPECIAL AWARDS | TV ADS ![]() You can also find more photos from the ceremony on the Politics magazine Facebook page. -
January 21, 2010
Shane D'Aprile
Today’s Supreme Court decision in Citizen’s United v. Federal Election Commission is delighting most political consultants—at least from a business perspective. The ruling, which overturns longstanding limits on corporate money in elections, will likely be a major boon for the industry, with campaign spending expected to soar.
The biggest winners in the short-term: media consultants. And the most visible impact for 2010: more political ads than anyone knows what to do with. Today’s Supreme Court decision in Citizen’s United v. Federal Election Commission is delighting most political consultants—at least from a business perspective. The ruling, which overturns longstanding limits on corporate money in elections, will likely be a major boon for the industry, with campaign spending expected to soar.
The biggest winners in the short-term: media consultants. And the most visible impact for 2010: more political ads than anyone knows what to do with. “It’s going to be like the Wild West,” says Tom Edmonds, president of the Republican media firm Edmonds and Associates. “We’re back to pre-Watergate times now when it comes to campaign finance law.” Edmonds calls the ruling a win for free speech but says the ultimate impact on the industry will take a bit longer to sort itself out. Partners at his firm are reading and digesting the Court’s ruling as quickly as they can and already talking to clients to “get a handle on what the best way to deal with it is.” While the ruling lifts the ban on corporate and union money, direct contributions to candidates from those interests are still barred. That means the money will either flow freely to third party groups to spend, or corporate entities will simply spend the money on their own ads. Either way, millions of dollars more will make it into the pockets of the consultants who produce political communications. Still, it’s not entirely good news for media consultants says Democratic media strategist Tad Devine. “Our efforts to communicate with voters could actually be substantially undermined by having so much corporate money thrown into elections at the final hour in completely uncontrollable ways,” Devine says. A senior strategist for Sen. John Kerry’s presidential campaign in 2004, Devine recalls the havoc caused by third party groups running ads in an attempt to help the Kerry campaign. “The intentions were good,” says Devine. “But the effect of that advertising was to undermine our strategic course in the campaign.” The real winners on the media side might be those consultants who focus more on corporate and issue advertising. “For those who work with aggressive advocacy groups on either side of the aisle, it’s a big boon to business,” says Kimberly Scott, a Democratic fundraiser who has worked closely with the labor movement for years. But politically, she says, the decision is really a boost to the GOP. “While it frees up labor as well as corporate dollars,” says Scott, “Republicans will ultimately benefit, and we will need to raise more to compete on the same level.” Unions, she says, simply don’t have the resources to compete dollar-for-dollar with corporate interests. (A handful of Democrats in Congress are apoplectic about Thursday’s ruling. Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) calls it “un-American,” and is pledging to hold hearings on the decision in the coming weeks.) Another likely impact—with more TV ads comes more clutter on the airwaves. That’s a potential problem for campaigns already struggling to figure out how to reach fragmented audiences. “I think it’s going to make it much more difficult for candidates to actually get their message out,” says Tim Kay, director of political strategy at National Cable Communications, an industry group. “That’s going to be especially true in those last few weeks when point levels are so high on television.” Only time will tell how far reaching the implications of the Court’s decision will be for the political consulting community, but sort-term changes will become clearer as the next campaign cycle builds. One prominent Democratic consultant described the likely impact as a chain reaction of sorts across the consulting industry. “This changes the game for everyone in one way or another,” he says. “But I wouldn’t be so quick to say that it’s good for everyone.” “It does throw a lot of unknowns on the table in terms of how it impacts business as usual,” says Tom Edmonds. “It’s going to make 2010 a very interesting year that’s for sure.” Shane D’Aprile is the senior editor of Politics magazine. Vinny Minchillo
January 21, 2010
Jeremy Jacobs
In a much-anticipated decision on Thursday, the Supreme Court virtually gutted an important section of campaign finance law that prohibited corporate spending in elections.
Politicians, campaign finance lawyers and politicos had been waiting for the Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission decision since it was reargued before the Court in early October with either great anticipation or great fear – depending on what side of the issue they were on. In a five-to-four decision on Thursday, the Court said the government cannot restrict corporate and union spending on ads and other election communications that expressly advocate for the election or defeat of a candidate in the days leading up to an election. In a much-anticipated decision on Thursday, the Supreme Court virtually gutted an important section of campaign finance law that prohibited corporate spending in elections.
Politicians, campaign finance lawyers and politicos had been waiting for the Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission decision since it was reargued before the Court in early October with either great anticipation or great fear – depending on what side of the issue they were on. In a five-to-four decision on Thursday, the Court said the government cannot restrict corporate and union spending on ads and other election communications that expressly advocate for the election or defeat of a candidate in the days leading up to an election. The case, as we have written before, involved Citizens United, a conservative nonprofit corporation that sought to air a documentary titled, "Hillary: The Movie" on a video on demand service in the 30 days leading up to the 2008 presidential primary. The Federal Election Commission intervened, saying the film amounted to a political communication and thus, could not be aired at that time. The Court issued a broad decision and ruled on the constitutionality of one section of the law, seemingly without being asked to do so by Citizens United. In so doing, the court overturned its 1990 holding in Austin v. Michigan Chamber of Commerce that held both that political speech may be banned based on the identity of the speaker and that corporate expenditures have "distorting and corrosive effects" on elections. If the Court chose to rule narrowly, it could have considered only whether the video on demand service should be regulated under the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (or McCain-Feingold), or whether Citizens United was the type of group that McCain-Feingold was meant to regulate. The Supreme Court called a special session on Thursday to announce the decision – something that is very rare. Justice Anthony Kennedy wrote the majority opinion, which was supported by Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Samuel Alito, Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas. Kennedy, who was expected to be the swing vote in the case, said on Thursday that "if the First Amendment has any force, it prohibits Congress from fining or jailing citizens, or associations of citizens, for simply engaging in political speech." He went on to say that Austin interferes with the market place of ideas. "It uses censorship to control thought," Kennedy said. Kennedy added that "without Austin, the government cannot limit corporate independent expenditures." The scene at the Supreme Court for the decision was far different than it was when the court heard rearguments in October. There were far fewer people in the audience and less reporters in the press box. In October, several lawmakers were in attendance, namely campaign finance reform champions Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Russell Feingold (D-Wisc.). On Thursday, I could only see Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) – who challenged McCain-Feingold in a 2003 Supreme Court case – and Florida freshman Rep. Alan Grayson (D). In the front row, David Bossie, the president of Citizens United, sat anxiously. He remarked to his small cadre that he hadn't slept well the night before and eagerly greeted McConnell when the senator arrived. He sat motionless as Kennedy delivered his remarks. Afterward, he called the ruling "monumental" and said that he was "extremely grateful and humbled." The bulk of the remarks while the court was in session, though, were delivered by Justice John Paul Stevens. Stevens wrote the 90-page dissenting opinion, with which Justices Ruth Bader, Stephen Breyer and Sonia Sotomayor concurred. Stevens, his voice cracking at times, tore into the majority opinion, saying he "emphatically disagrees" with it. In particular, he chastised the majority for taking up the constitutionality of the section of McCain-Feingold when it wasn't asked to. He then ticked off a litany of "errors" in the majority opinion. These included questioning the majority's recollection of history. Stevens said the government – and the Supreme Court – has repeatedly said that it can limit the right to free speech depending on the identity of the speaker, in this case corporations. Further, he scolded the majority for granting free speech protection to corporations. "Corporations are not human beings," he said. "The ruling announced today represents a radical change in the law." Afterward, Floyd Abrams, perhaps the preeminent First Amendment lawyer in the country who argued aspects of the case, summed up reach of the Court’s ruling in one word: "Far." "It was a sweeping decision that made it very clear that the First Amendment protects corporate speech about politics and government," he said. "It is not for Congress to decide who can say what. It is a holding that corporate expenditures are protected by the First Amendment just as independent expenditures are protected by the First Amendment." In many ways, the breadth of the decision caps off a trend in campaign finance law. As I wrote in our January issue, over the past few years courts have been chipping away at McCain-Feingold and its intent. This ruling is more than just another flesh wound, however, it is a gutting of one of the principles of the law.Abrams also made the point, though, that this may be more of an ideological victory that may not have huge practical effects. In about half of the country's states, unlimited corporate expenditures are already permitted and there isn't much of a difference in corporate spending in those states compared to others. Abrams' remarks raises the question of just what impact this will have on the 2010 and 2012 elections. It is very hard to say at this point. What is clear, though, is that the airwaves in 2010 and 2012 could, as a result of this decision, look quite different. Jeremy P. Jacobs is the staff writer for Politics magazine. craig
January 21, 2010
James Klatell
This morning the Supreme Court essentially opened the door for corporations and unions to spend freely on political races with its long-awaited ruling in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission.
We’re reading the Court’s decision now—here it is in PDF—and will post more news and reactions as we get them. The cover story from the January issue of Politics, written by Jeremy P. Jacobs, is an extensive look at the state of campaign finance legislation and what its apparent gutting means for the future of campaigning. It is a must read for anyone who raises—or spends—money in the political world. This morning the Supreme Court essentially opened the door for corporations and unions to spend freely on political races with its long-awaited ruling in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission.
We’re reading the Court’s decision now—here it is in PDF—and will post more news and reactions as we get them.
The cover story from the January issue of Politics, written by Jeremy P. Jacobs, is an extensive look at the state of campaign finance legislation and what its apparent gutting means for the future of campaigning. It is a must read for anyone who raises—or spends—money in the political world. Click here to read The Passion of McCain-Feingold. Click here for the entire January issue of Politics. Ericha Parks
January 20, 2010
Shane D'Aprile
For Republican campaigns hoping to harness the Internet this November to propel everything from online fundraising to GOTV efforts, the campaign operation to emulate may very well be that of Scott Brown. The Massachusetts Sen.-elect bested the campaign of Democratic opponent Martha Coakley in just about every online metric you can measure, and in the process did something rare for Republican campaigns of late—offer an online model that actually moved the ball forward on a range of tactics.
For Republican campaigns hoping to harness the Internet this November to propel everything from online fundraising to GOTV efforts, the campaign operation to emulate may very well be that of Scott Brown.
The Massachusetts Sen.-elect bested the campaign of Democratic opponent Martha Coakley in just about every online metric you can measure, and in the process did something rare for Republican campaigns of late—offer an online model that actually moved the ball forward on a range of tactics. Brown’s campaign went up with a Google network blast a full five days before Tuesday’s election, blanketing Internet users with online ads, many of which were aimed at key Massachusetts towns the Brown camp had in its sights. For the most part, network blasts have been used as a last-minute GOTV tool, usually running in the 48 hours before Election Day. But the Brown camp expanded that window significantly and also used the early ads as a call for volunteers. The campaign’s online “money bomb,” which had a goal of some $500,000 in one day for the race, shattered those expectations and hauled in $1.3 million. In the following days, the online cash kept coming. In all, the Brown campaign raised an incredible $12 million online. The campaign used Google docs and spreadsheets to run field ops, and it took full advantage of Google’s new ad options for YouTube videos. The campaign also developed a canvassing app for iPhone and Blackberry, which allowed volunteers to download walk lists for their neighborhoods right to their phones. But perhaps most importantly, the man who headed up Brown’s new media efforts, Rob Willington, says he always had a seat at the strategy table and a say in every aspect of the campaign—from fundraising to field ops. “It was great because I wasn’t just the Internet guy,” says Willington, the former executive director of the Massachusetts GOP. Willington played a role in developing the traditional media strategy, too. He was even in the studio when the campaign was cutting TV ads. “When you’re that involved, you ensure that you’re online messaging is in sync with everything else,” he says. In the process, the Brown camp was also able shed some of the top-down management style that tends to define Republican campaigns. It readily accepted the sort of bottom-up grassroots initiative that GOP campaigns rarely, if ever, embrace. “They opened it up to volunteers and said, ‘You want to make a video? Go ahead,’” says Mindy Finn, a partner at the new media firm Engage. “The control wasn’t all in campaign headquarters. It was spread across the grassroots.” And, for what it’s worth, the raw numbers on social networking sites favored Brown big time. The Republican tripled Coakley’s followers on Twitter and had five times the number of fans on Facebook. Brown’s YouTube videos also garnered more than nine times the number of plays that Coakley’s did. As for what it could mean this November, one thing seems clear: The past year has done away with this idea that online tactics and tools are somehow less able to motivate and mobilize conservatives. “And the willingness to innovate is there now,” says Mindy Finn, who worked on the Brown campaign’s online fundraising efforts. “There are still some Democrats who think that because Obama so effectively used new media we have some natural advantage, but we don’t,” says Will Robinson, a Democrat and partner at The New Media Firm. “I think it shows that anyone in a marginal race this year ignores new media at their peril.” Shane D'Aprile is senior editor at Politics magazine. He can be reached at sdaprile@politicsmagazine.com -
January 20, 2010
Tyler Harber
Last night's special election in Massachusetts was a huge win for Scott Brown and Republicans and we have a lot to learn from the election about the way that the winning coalition is shifting and how we can tap into populist sentiment nationwide.
While fully understanding what happened and how we can use the lessons from Massachusetts around the country will take time, here are five lessons from Massachusetts in the form of more-or-less famous quotes. Last night's special election in Massachusetts was a huge win for Scott Brown and Republicans and we have a lot to learn from the election about the way that the winning coalition is shifting and how we can tap into populist sentiment nationwide.
While fully understanding what happened and how we can use the lessons from Massachusetts around the country will take time, here are five lessons from Massachusetts in the form of more-or-less famous quotes. 1) "Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, three times is enemy action." Since the 2008 election, Republican candidates are three-for-three in major statewide elections and all three came in states that Obama won. The political winds are clearly blowing our way, but we can improve our chances of winning big in 2010 by understanding what our victories in Virginia, New Jersey and now Massachusetts have in common. 2) "Things fall apart, the center cannot hold." Much has been made of Obama's "top and bottom" 2008 coalition.
3) The conventional wisdom that 'negative campaigning works' is "true in some sense, false in some sense, and meaningless in some sense." In the final days of the campaign, Martha Coakley went negative and tried to paint Scott Brown as everything from an arch-conservative to a Wall Street elitist.
4) "Campaigns matter." Scott Brown and his campaign understood the mood of the electorate, developed a winning narrative, and got their message to voters. That's how you win campaigns.
5) "Don't pull your arm of socket trying to pat yourself on the back." Last night was a huge win for Scott Brown and should motivate every Republican around the country to redouble our efforts to win big in November. But, last night also makes us one-for-five in special elections during this election cycle. Republicans should be confident and emboldened, but we should also learn one from the Coakley campaign and not take anything for granted. Tyler Harber is vice president and director of the Political Division for Wilson Research Strategies, a leading public opinion research and political consulting firm for Republicans. You can follow Harber at www.w-r-s.com or on @tharber. Earl, Phil, BETTERTHAN TYLER
January 20, 2010
Jeremy Jacobs
UPDATED BELOW: After two cups of coffee and two Aleves, I'm still trying to wrap my head around what happened last night in Massachusetts when all I thought I knew about Bay State politics from covering the state in the 2008 cycle imploded. Republican state Sen. Scott Brown's improbable five-point win over Attorney General Martha Coakley for Ted Kennedy's Senate seat was shocking on many levels. Here are my initial musings on what happened and why.
The First Tea Party Senator? – To steal the headline from Mark Leibovich's New York Times Magazine story on Marco Rubio in Florida, Brown is the first major electoral win for the loosely affiliated group of Tea Party activists. And it is already being portrayed that way. This makes sense because Brown received a lot of money from this movement - as evidenced by this fundraiser - despite his attempts to distance himself from the movement in public statements. UPDATED BELOW: After two cups of coffee and two Aleves, I'm still trying to wrap my head around what happened last night in Massachusetts when all I thought I knew about Bay State politics from covering the state in the 2008 cycle imploded. Republican state Sen. Scott Brown's improbable five-point win over Attorney General Martha Coakley for Ted Kennedy's Senate seat was shocking on many levels. Here are my initial musings on what happened and why.
The First Tea Party Senator? – To steal the headline from Mark Leibovich's New York Times Magazine story on Marco Rubio in Florida, Brown is the first major electoral win for the loosely affiliated group of Tea Party activists. And it is already being portrayed that way. This makes sense because Brown received a lot of money from this movement - as evidenced by this fundraiser - despite his attempts to distance himself from the movement in public statements. That isn't to say that Brown ran a dishonest campaign. It was shocking to see how much traction Brown was getting. When I moved to the Bay State to cover Massachusetts politics in 2008, the first thing I would ask people was if there was a Republican who could win statewide. Brown's name rarely came up. Charlie Baker, the Republican gubernatorial candidate, was always at the top of the list. Brown was often mentioned as highly ambitious, but no one thought he could win statewide. And let's not forget that Brown was the GOP's last choice to run for this seat. Remember when he said he wouldn't run if Andy Card was interested? A Recipe For Republican Success in Massachusetts – As I wrote yesterday in a preview of the race, Brown's path to victory was somewhat narrow – as it is for any Republican statewide in Massachusetts. Brown executed that strategy to the letter. Just look at the map. He won the Boston suburbs and nearly all of the I-495 corridor. He beat Coakley 62 percent to 37 percent in Chelmsford, a classic Republican bellwether. Fitchburg and Peabody, two more swing towns, Brown won by 19 points in each. Brown's campaign was guided by strategists with a record of success in Massachusetts – mainly Mitt Romney's team. Three members of Romney's presidential campaign team – Eric Fehrnstrom, Beth Myers and Peter Flaherty – were calling the shots for Brown, as was his longtime right hand man, Greg Casey. In addition to the geography of his win, Brown also carefully appealed to unenrolled voters and Democrats. He never called himself a Republican. His "every man" image didn't offend anyone and, for the most part, he didn't rile anyone up by running an angry campaign. He ran an outsiders campaign. Be Careful Comparing Massachusetts to the Rest of the Country – Take the national Republican spin that Brown's win shows a deep distrust of the Democrats agenda in Washington with a grain of salt. Part of it is true – there is certainly an anti-establishment vibe out there, but it is unclear yet if it is anti-Democratic. More, the anti-establishment sentiment is heightened in Massachusetts. Bay State voters have an extremely sour view of their elected officials on Beacon Hill. Gov. Deval Patrick's (D) numbers are in the toilet. The opinion of the state legislature is even lower because of numerous scandals (see: Wilkerson, Dianne and DiMasi, Salvatore). Massachusetts voters are more receptive to anti-establishment candidates. Patrick ran as one. Romney ran as one when he ran for governor. Now Brown has run as one. The Fall of Martha Coakley – One question that so far isn't getting much attention is whether this is the end of Coakley's political career. When this race began Coakley had everything going for her. She had run statewide and won big in 2006. She had approval ratings in the 70s. She was wildly popular among the Democratic establishment. She was seen as the Democrats next sure thing statewide candidate and looked like she would capitalize on a strong desire among Massachusetts women to elect a woman statewide. She had her campaign team in place before the race began and cruised in the Democratic primary. She wasn't just the favored Democrat in Massachusetts; she was the best Democratic candidate in Massachusetts. If you want to compare her to another politician, Dick Blumenthal, the Democrat running for Chris Dodd's Senate seat in Connecticut, comes to mind. Democratic Pandemonium – That, of course, raises the question of what went wrong in Coakley's campaign. At this point, it is hard to say. What became abundantly clear yesterday, however, is that Democratic finger pointing may have reached an all time high. Coakley's team was blaming national Democrats and national Democrats – including the White House! - were blaming Coakley hours before the polls closed. This goes beyond political malpractice. It is almost inconceivable. If the 2006 and 2008 cycles made you forget how disorganized, undisciplined and, ultimately, unsuccessful the Democratic campaign structure can be, yesterday should have been a wake up call. Is Bush Still Relevant? – A Republican winning Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in Massachusetts may be a sign that the GOP brand is rebounding in a big way. Part of the reason for that may be because voters increasingly view George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as irrelevant. If this is what is happening, Democrats desperately need some new attack lines. This is the statement that Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) sent out last night: UPDATE, 3:15 PM: Here's a statistic that Republicans are gleefully pulling out of last night's vote: Scott Brown may have carried a a majority of the congressional districts in Massachusetts, according to a Republican source with knowledge of the data. Brown won at least five of the Bay State's 10 districts, all of which are now represented by Democrats, the GOP analysis says. Brown may have also carried two additional districts, but they aren't sure because the two districts have towns that split between districts. Brown carried: 2nd District, which is held by Richard Neal 3rd District, which is held by Jim McGovern 5th District, which is held by Niki Tsongas 6th District; which is held by John Tierney 10th District, which is held by William Delahunt Brown was also close to carrying Barney Frank's 4th District and Stephen Lynch's 9th, according to the analysis. Jeremy P. Jacobs is the staff writer at Politics. In 2008, he covered Massachusetts politics for PolitickerMA.com. He can be reached at jjacobs@politicsmagazine.com -
January 19, 2010
Allen Raymond
Last week the Brookings Institute unveiled a study on how to foster citizen participation through small donors and volunteers to political campaigns, entitled Reform in the Age of Networked Campaigns. The authors are all well known and rightly respected thinkers on campaign finance reform (Anthony Corrado, Michael Malbin, Thomas Mann and Norman Ornstein). The conclusion of the study is that campaign finance reform should encourage small donor participation so that the percentage of small donations increases with the intent to curb potential corruption. The ideas within the study are sensible. However, it is worth examining whether the proposed reforms could encourage a new source of coercion.
Last week the Brookings Institute unveiled a study on how to foster citizen participation through small donors and volunteers to political campaigns, entitled Reform in the Age of Networked Campaigns. The authors are all well known and rightly respected thinkers on campaign finance reform (Anthony Corrado, Michael Malbin, Thomas Mann and Norman Ornstein). The conclusion of the study is that campaign finance reform should encourage small donor participation so that the percentage of small donations increases with the intent to curb potential corruption. The ideas within the study are sensible. However, it is worth examining whether the proposed reforms could encourage a new source of coercion.
Timely to this topic is the release of Jaron Lanier’s new book, You Are Not A Gadget. In his book Mr. Lanier ponders whether the “Web’s structure and ideology are fostering nasty group dynamics and mediocre collaborations” (New York Times, January, 2010). While Mr. Lanier’s book is largely about retooling the Web through software revisions and other innovations to combat piracy, his point about hive thinking and the online mob mentality is applicable to campaign finance reform in the context of socio-political media. The Web offers numerous places for the ideological to find a home and self-polarize. Conservatives tend to take refuge at places like Red State and Free Republic. Liberals tend to congregate at places like Daily Kos and Fire Dog Lake. These sites offer the opportunity to mix and mingle with those of a similar political persuasion and are also involved in issue advocacy (usually to the benefit of candidates aligned with their stated policy interests). These types of sites also assist in candidate money bombs, when candidates set a date to raise a specific amount of campaign contributions. Ultimately, these political ideology sites encourage the type of hive thinking that leads to a mob mentality which, with critical mass, can be very influential in a political campaign contest and upon the direction of a political party. Due to the large numbers of people engaged in politics via social media these networks can exhibit a great deal of leverage over a candidate and political party. The assumption in Reform in the Age of Networked Campaigns is that our current mechanism for funding political campaigns encourages corruption, with a few giving a lot to political candidates. These few who give so much are therefore in a position to influence legislators after the election has been won. It is undeniable that giving money in the manner and amount done by corporate political action committees is intended to have influence on legislators. When asked during the presentation of their report if their proposals could give rise to further polarization of the electoral, the authors flatly rejected the possibility. The reason for the rejection is that small donors tend not to try lever their small donation (less than $100) with candidates who become legislators. That may be true in the direct mail fundraising paradigm. However, when socio-political media donors band together to give to a candidate the percentage of small donations given with a goal in mind increases. When that increase reaches a critical mass, the band of small donors will have a clear voice that cannot be ignored by candidates, even though those donors may not be constituents. The overall impact of social media is positive because it increases citizen participation in elections (e.g. President Obama’s 2008 candidacy). But it also raises the potential danger when combing “hive thinking” with the leverage of aggregate donations by small donors banding together who are activated by the impact they can have on candidates by bundling their contributions via socio-political media. This in turn could result in the increase of corruption, rather than its restraint which is one objective of the report offered by the authors of the Brookings Institute study. Candidates will find it is easier to say no to a handful of lobbyists than it will be to say no to large groups of organized small donors with the ability to both vote in a block and voice their demands in unison. That being said, money is an essential element to every candidacy. Greater citizen participation in campaign fundraising means more prospective donors and there isn’t a campaign professional who would decline a bigger campaign budget. Allen Raymond is a former Republican campaign manager and consultant and author of “How To Rig An Election; Confessions of a Republican Operative.” Read more of his blog at www.redelephantgop.blogspot.com. -
January 19, 2010
Jordan Lieberman
The Campaign Control lists are back! As you might recall from the last campaign cycle, Campaign Control is the comprehensive list of campaigns around the U.S., with contact information for each available campaign. It includes campaign manager contact information in many cases, as well.
Fill out this form, and you'll be the first to receive the first 2010 Campaign Control. The Campaign Control lists are back! As you might recall from the last campaign cycle, Campaign Control is the comprehensive list of campaigns around the U.S., with contact information for each available campaign. It includes campaign manager contact information in many cases, as well.
This year, we will include every Federal candidate, plus candidates for state House, state Senate, and statewide office. We'll also include many county and municipal candidates. The lists will be updated for you every two weeks, since the campaigns will be coming on line at different times throughout the year. Fill out this form, and you'll be the first to receive the first 2010 Campaign Control. The total cost includes one full year of list updates. Fax it back to us ASAP at 703-778-4024. -
January 19, 2010
Jeremy Jacobs
In case you didn't know, there is a special election today in Massachusetts with a lot riding on it. Republican state Sen. Scott Brown is attempting what will likely go down as the biggest upset in political history by beating Attorney General Martha Coakley in the special election for Ted Kennedy's Senate seat. Even though there is a lot of talk about the national ramifications of the race – healthcare, the Democrats' 60-vote majority, etc. – there hasn't been a lot of discussion on how, exactly, Brown can win tonight. The path to statewide victory for a Republican in Massachusetts is a narrow one. So, here is what to watch for when the polls close tonight. ![]() In case you didn't know, there is a special election today in Massachusetts with a lot riding on it. Republican state Sen. Scott Brown is attempting what will likely go down as the biggest upset in political history by beating Attorney General Martha Coakley in the special election for Ted Kennedy's Senate seat. Even though there is a lot of talk about the national ramifications of the race – healthcare, the Democrats' 60-vote majority, etc. – there hasn't been a lot of discussion on how, exactly, Brown can win tonight. The path to statewide victory for a Republican in Massachusetts is a narrow one. So, here is what to watch for when the polls close tonight. How Brown Wins For Brown to win, he has to mimic how other Republicans have won in the Bay State. The most recent example of this is former Gov. Mitt Romney, with whom Brown now shares several advisors. In Romney's 2002 gubernatorial win, he carried Barnstable, Essex and Plymouth Counties by large margins. Brown will need big turnout in those areas. Another way to look at the map is to follow I-495 in Massachusetts. This can be a Republican corridor. Brown must perform well in towns like Billerica, Marlborough, North Andover and Wrentham, Brown's home base. Another key bellwether for the GOP along I-495 is Chelsmford. Chelsmford is even more important in this race because it is nearly at the opposite end of the state from Wrentham, so it'll provide a good barometer for how well Brown is performing across the state. How Coakley Wins Don't buy the argument that this election comes down to independent, or unenrolled, voters. Yes, it is true that they make up half of the electorate in Massachusetts and Brown has targeted them. But this is a special election, which tend to be low turnout affairs. And it is snowing in Massachusetts. Democrats have a three-to-one registration advantage in the state. It is within the Democrats' control to win this race, they just have to get those voters to the polls. Coakley needs to win big in Middlesex County – the state's most populous and where she was district attorney – and Suffolk County – where Boston is. In 2002, Romney carried Middlesex narrowly. If Coakley is lagging there, she is in big trouble. If Brown carries the county, he is heading to the Senate. The Democrats also need to drive up the score in Suffolk. Boston is ruled by Mayor Tom Menino, who has probably the most effective political machine on the East Coast. There has been little written about whether Menino has put it into action for Coakley. Coakley also needs big turnout in Brookline, Cambridge and Somerville - big Democratic areas. Other Places to Watch Worcester County – Romney carried this county in 2002. (Don't confuse this with Worcester, the city, which is Democratic leaning.) Fitchburg and Peabody – traditional bellwethers for Massachusetts in statewide elections. For an in depth breakdown of voting behavior in Massachusetts, definitely check out this Partisan Voting Index of cities and towns on the Blue Mass Group. A Final Thought… Brown lives in the Bay State's 3rd Congressional District. If he doesn't win, he could challenge Rep. Jim McGovern (D), one of the most outspoken and liberal members of the congressional delegation, next year. Before McGovern defeated him, the seat was held by Peter Blute, a Republican, for two terms. Jeremy P. Jacobs is the staff writer at Politics. He formerly covered Massachusetts politics for PolitickerMA.com. You can reach him at jjacobs@politicsmagazine.com -
January 14, 2010
Jeremy Jacobs
One of the most discussed aspects of the 2008 presidential election is how successfully Barack Obama raked in small dollar donations. The sheer number of these contributions leads many to marvel; in the primary race, 30 percent of Obama's fundraising came from contributions less than $200. In the general, that number jumped to 34 percent.
Obama's fundraising, along with the small army of volunteers his campaign commanded, spurred four leading thinkers on campaign finance to consider whether the Obama campaign had – inadvertently - provided a model to reform campaign finance law. On Thursday, the foursome laid out policy recommendations that they believe will fundamentally change campaign fundraising for the better. Their report focuses on one key principle: Increase the number of small contributions in all campaigns One of the most discussed aspects of the 2008 presidential election is how successfully Barack Obama raked in small dollar donations. The sheer number of these contributions leads many to marvel; in the primary race, 30 percent of Obama's fundraising came from contributions less than $200. In the general, that number jumped to 34 percent.
Obama's fundraising, along with the small army of volunteers his campaign commanded, spurred four leading thinkers on campaign finance to consider whether the Obama campaign had – inadvertently - provided a model to reform campaign finance law. On Thursday, the foursome laid out policy recommendations that they believe will fundamentally change campaign fundraising for the better. Their report focuses on one key principle: Increase the number of small contributions in all campaigns. The authors of the report are Anthony Corrado of Colby College, Michael Malbin of the Campaign Finance Institute, Thomas Mann of the Brookings Institute and Norman Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute. In his introduction, Malbin said the group is seeking to shift the debate away from the usual debate over restrictions on big dollar contributions to focus on encouraging small dollar contributions. The idea being that more small donors translates into more volunteers, which in turn translates into more participation in the electorate. While Obama may have provided the stimulus for these recommendations, he is without a doubt an aberration. Small dollar donations have declined in the last 10 years at every level of government. Perhaps more notably, Obama relied on traditional big dollar contributions to get his campaign off the ground. It was only after he was an established candidate that the small dollar contributions began rolling in. So how does policy facilitate small dollar contributions even in the early stages of a race? The group looked at states where there have been more small contributions. In 2006, for example, over half of all the contributions in Minnesota races came in small denominations – the highest percentage in the country. (The lowest, by the way, was Alabama, where only 3 percent did.) The group recommends a series of steps to try to increase the number of small dollar contributions. First, a more robust matching fund pubic financing system. Second, when it comes to public financing, lower contribution limits should replace spending limits. Third, enforce a ceiling on the amount of public funds a candidate may receive. All of this, according to the authors, will not only increase civic participation, but it will level the playing field between incumbents and challengers by encouraging more people to run. Jeremy P. Jacobs is the staff writer at Politics. He can be reached at jjacobs@politicsmagazine.com Joe Garecht
January 13, 2010
Shane D'Aprile
A potential showdown over state-level robocall restrictions has stalled after a conservative political action committee withdrew a request for clarification from the Federal Election Commission. The American Future Fund withdrew an advisory opinion request to the FEC that asked the commission to override state regulations on political robocalls. The FEC was expected to provide a final ruling on the request by the end of this month and the issue was on the agenda for the commission’s open meeting slated for January 14. But now that AFF has pulled the request, the FEC will not issue a final opinion.
A potential showdown over state-level robocall restrictions has stalled after a conservative political action committee withdrew a request for clarification from the Federal Election Commission.
The American Future Fund withdrew an advisory opinion request that asked the commission to override state regulations on political robocalls. The FEC was expected to provide a final ruling on the request by the end of this month and the issue was on the agenda for the commission’s open meeting slated for January 14. But now that AFF has pulled the request, the FEC will not issue a final opinion. The attorney for the conservative political action committee, Jason Torchinsky, had argued that a Minnesota state statute restricting the calls was pre-empted by federal campaign finance law. But in draft opinions released by the FEC, the PAC received a mixed response leading Torchinsky to conclude that the FEC’s final ruling on the matter might make it even tougher for PACs and campaigns. Here’s the full statement Torchinsky sent to Politics on the withdrawal of the AOR: The original request resulted in a bevy of responses from anti-robocall advocates and state attorneys general in opposition to AFF’s position. Shaun Dakin, who heads the National Political Do-Not-Contact Registry, and former Indiana Attorney General Steve Carter filed a comment with the FEC in November in response to the AOR. They argued that state regulations on pre-recorded calls shouldn’t be viewed as campaign finance regulations and aren’t subject to regulation under campaign finance law. That was followed by more than half a dozen additional comments, including several from sitting AG’s. The withdrawal is good news for advocates like Dakin. And in the short term it means tough restrictions like the ones in place in Minnesota, where robocalls must be preceded by a live operator, will remain intact. Shane D'Aprile is senior editor at Politics magazine. He can be reached at sdaprile@politicsmagazine.com -
January 05, 2010
James Klatell
Happy New Year and welcome to the January 2010 issue of Politics magazine. The complete magazine is available for our digital edition subscribers, and our print edition subscribers should check their mailboxes soon. Some of the stories are posted here on politicsmagazine.com to give you an idea of what’s coming.This is a landmark edition of the magazine: 2010 marks the 30th anniversary of Campaigns & Elections. Check out the cover gallery for a trip down memory lane. Of the 76 pages in this issue, it is the cover that I’ve already heard questions about. Happy New Year and welcome to the January 2010 issue of Politics magazine. The complete magazine is available for our digital edition subscribers, and our print edition subscribers should check their mailboxes soon. Some of the stories are posted here on politicsmagazine.com to give you an idea of what’s coming.This is a landmark edition of the magazine: 2010 marks the 30th anniversary of Campaigns & Elections. Check out the cover gallery for a trip down memory lane. Of the 76 pages in this issue, it is the cover that I’ve already heard questions about. January’s cover story looks at the slow death of campaign finance legislation. Politics staff writer Jeremy P. Jacobs writes about the piece-by-piece destruction of McCain-Feingold and what it means for the future of political fundraising. Our editorial and design teams tried to find the best way to illustrate the story—including the devotion Sens. McCain and Feingold show to their namesake legislation—and we decided to pay homage to two American icons: Schoolhouse Rock and Muhammad Ali. The headline and the design concept are drawn from the inspired April 1968 Esquire cover featuring Ali pierced by arrows. That Esquire issue—with The Greatest suffering as Saint Sebastian did—was named one of the top three magazine covers by the American Society of Magazine Editors, and we agreed it was a great idea.But who would pay the price for his beliefs on our cover? Well, he started out as just a bill, sitting on Capitol Hill. Hopefully many of you remember the Schoolhouse Rock’s tribute to the legislative process—I certainly do. We decided that after the bill became a law, it would be his passion displayed on the front of Politics. Jeff Brown, our creative director, and Kristin Grogg, our art director, took over and turned the concept into a beautiful image. Also in the January issue:► Politics senior editor Shane D'Aprile checks the political winds and sees a ten year storm on the horizon. Redistricting is almost here, and Democrats say they won't get fooled again.► Pennsylvania gets special attention from us in January as Gov. Ed Rendell serves as this month's guest editor. The guys from PoliticsPA also identify the 100 most important opinion brokers in the Keystone State in "The Influencers." ► Republican new media strategist Mindy Finn asks—and answers—the question: "What Wins A Vote?" Check out the table of contents here. James Klatell is the managing editor of Politics magazine. -
December 16, 2009
Jim Ellis
Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii) is running for Governor. Since it is now obvious that Honolulu’s Mayor, Mufi Hannemann -- who is virtually omnipresent in the Hawaii media – will challenge Abercrombie for the Democratic nomination, the Congressman realized he needs to be back home, and fast. Thus, Abercrombie announced that he will leave his federal post to fully concentrate on campaigning for Governor.
Immediately dogged by his fellow Democrats for abandoning the House before the healthcare legislation is passed and key bills pertaining to the classification of Hawaii’s native population are dispensed with, Abercrombie immediately backtracked to say he will leave after these bills pass. But, as he told the local media, that time will come soon. Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii) is running for Governor. Since it is now obvious that Honolulu’s Mayor, Mufi Hannemann -- who is virtually omnipresent in the Hawaii media – will challenge Abercrombie for the Democratic nomination, the Congressman realized he needs to be back home, and fast. Thus, Abercrombie announced that he will leave his federal post to fully concentrate on campaigning for Governor.
Immediately dogged by his fellow Democrats for abandoning the House before the healthcare legislation is passed and key bills pertaining to the classification of Hawaii’s native population are dispensed with, Abercrombie immediately backtracked to say he will leave after these bills pass. But, as he told the local media, that time will come soon. The Democrats have real problems in maintaining their hold on this congressional seat. Of the state’s two districts, the 1st is the most competitive. A special election will likely be held in one winner-take-all format – and this could favor Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou, the consensus Republican candidate. Djou, in his second term on the Council, is a former state legislator. He has twice defeated Democratic incumbents to obtain his offices. National Republican leaders believe Djou is one of the best candidates throughout the country. In a winner-take-all election, the Republican could have enough votes to win by solidifying the GOP base. The Democrats will split between former 2nd District Rep. Ed Case, and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa. The two ran against each other before in a 2nd District special election, a race Case won. Once portraying themselves as each being the one to represent rural Hawaii, now they claim to be best for metropolitan Honolulu, too. If Djou wins the special, he will then be the incumbent going into the 2010 general election. The 1st District can go Republican. It elected Patricia Saiki twice before Abercrombie won the seat when the congresswoman vacated to run for Senate. Republican Gov. Linda Lingle easily carried the district in both of her victorious statewide runs, and even won the region when she lost her 1998 race. Charles Djou is a budding superstar candidate. Watch for a potential GOP steal in this tropical paradise. Jim Ellis is a former political advisor to the House Republican majority and currently provides election analysis for clients of the PRIsm Information Network. With Bennet Kelley he has formed Filibanter to provide live presentations and media interviews combining political filibustering and banter. -
December 10, 2009
James Klatell
Politics magazine's list of the 100 most influential Republicans and Democrats in Pennsylvania will be published in the January 2010 issue--which happens to have Gov. Ed Rendell (D-Pa.) as a guest editor--but I am publishing the list online ahead of this weekend's Pennsylvania Society dinner.
Hopefully the list will add to the conversation over dinner at the Waldorf. Politics magazine's list of the 100 most influential Republicans and Democrats in Pennsylvania will be published in the January 2010 issue--which happens to have Gov. Ed Rendell (D-Pa.) as a guest editor--but I am publishing the list online ahead of this weekend's Pennsylvania Society dinner.
Hopefully the list will add to the conversation over dinner at the Waldorf. About the authors of the Pennsylvania Influencers: Alex Roarty has covered politics in Pennsylvania for a variety of media outlets, including a stint as PolitickerPA’s Harrisburg correspondent. He is currently an editor and staff writer for PoliticsPA, an online publication that focuses on the behind-the-scenes action in Harrisburg and for campaigns statewide. He put together the Republican list. Sean Coit, a graduate of St. Joseph’s University, is an assistant editor and writer for PoliticsPA and has been published in the Philadelphia Inquirer. He put together the Democratic list. Click here to read the Pennsylvania Influencers. (PDF) Click here to see our Influencers lists from other states. ![]() dazed&confused, sick and tired, alsodazed&confused but not shocked, …
December 08, 2009
Allen Raymond
Recently Mr. James Bopp, accomplished GOP ballot access attorney and Republican National Committeeman from Indiana, unveiled a litmus test for GOP candidates to be voted on by the full committee in January 2010. The litmus test stipulates that any GOP candidate seeking support and assistance from the RNC must meet seven of ten conditions.
This is the RNC’s attempt to refashion a Contract with America (CwA) message for the 2010 elections. The difference is the PPRUPSC actively engages controversial issues where the CwA sought to avoid polarization by focusing on what can be termed as 60% issues; those issues with which 60% of American agree according to survey research. Recently Mr. James Bopp, accomplished GOP ballot access attorney and Republican National Committeeman from Indiana, unveiled a litmus test for GOP candidates to be voted on by the full committee in January 2010. The litmus test stipulates that any GOP candidate seeking support and assistance from the RNC must meet seven of ten conditions. The conditions of the “Proposed RNC Resolution on Reagan’s Unity Principle for Support of Candidates (PRRUPSC):
The CwA was undeniably successful, helping to deliver a Republican majority to Congress in 1994 by positively and simply defining the GOP in a manner easily understood by the electorate. The PPRUPSC fails in this charge by presenting more as a litmus test than a set of principles due to the fact that the resolution ties support to a candidate's performance on these issues. The larger problem for the RNC if it passes this resolution is it will be easily manipulated by Democratic candidates to define Republican candidates as intolerant and inflexible. The PPRUPSC directly confronts gay marriage, abortion and gun rights thus choosing to headline issues that are unlikely to be top of mind to the 2010 voter. A recent Gallup survey reported that only 12 percent of Americans think gun laws need to be less strict. Support for same-sex marriage is growing with as many as 42 percent of Americans in support according to CBS News earlier this year. Abortion speaks for itself as a polarizing issue best used in the mailbox and not at the general election ballot box. With this resolution Mr. Bopp is seeking to fight some legislative battles that have already been determined. Cap and trade is a fact; healthcare reform is soon to be a fact; card check is not broadly a winning issue or relevant to 2010 and; President Obama has already committed more troops to Afghanistan. The PPRUPSC is bad for the GOP is because it will be used by Democrats to polarize voters against Republican candidates. There is fertile ground on economic issues to give the GOP victories in 2010 and that is where the RNC should craft its resolutions, rather than playing in its preferred sandbox of abortion, guns and gay marriage. A significant segment of the electorate will be easily persuaded that any litmus test that applies to candidates also applies to voters. Allen Raymond is a former Republican campaign manager and consultant and author of “How To Rig An Election; Confessions of a Republican Operative.” Read more of his blog at www.redelephantgop.blogspot.com. Angelina Spencer, Adrienne1001
December 07, 2009
Jim Ellis
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research just released a new Nevada poll (11/30-12/2; 625 registered Nevada voters; live telephone interviews), and the results show Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid trailing two potential Republican opponents, former state Republican Party chair Sue Lowden (leading Reid 51-41 percent) and ex-Secretary of State candidate Danny Tarkanian (ahead 48-42 percent).
With a personal approval index of 38-49 percent positive to negative, Sen. Reid continues to be viewed unfavorably even with 100% name identification. These numbers are only a little better than those continually recorded by now defeated New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D), so the consistency of his negative polling results over an extended period of time should be of great concern to the Majority Leader. Mason-Dixon Polling & Research just released a new Nevada poll (11/30-12/2; 625 registered Nevada voters; live telephone interviews), and the results show Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid trailing two potential Republican opponents, former state Republican Party chair Sue Lowden (leading Reid 51-41 percent) and ex-Secretary of State candidate Danny Tarkanian (ahead 48-42 percent).
With a personal approval index of 38-49 percent positive to negative, Sen. Reid continues to be viewed unfavorably even with 100% name identification. These numbers are only a little better than those continually recorded by now defeated New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D), so the consistency of his negative polling results over an extended period of time should be of great concern to the Majority Leader. But the Senator isn’t the only member of the Reid family that may be on the statewide ballot next year. Rory Reid, the Senator’s son and Clark County Commissioner, is considering a run for Governor. With Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons in deep political trouble, Democrats have the Nevada state house race high on their national target list. But, Gibbons may not survive his fight for re-nomination even if he does seek another term. Former federal judge Brian Sandoval has a 39 to 18 percent lead over the governor in the Republican primary according to this Mason-Dixon survey. With an incumbent scoring so low among voters of his own party, it is almost assured that he will not be in next year’s general election. Testing Sandoval as the Republican, and Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman running as an Independent, which he has repeatedly suggested is a possibility, Rory Reid places dead last in such a gubernatorial field. Goodman would lead Sandoval and Reid 35-32-24 percent. Both of the statewide races carry major national ramifications. Obviously, should Harry Reid lose, the Senate will have a new Majority Leader. With Nevada gaining an additional congressional district in reapportionment, the Silver State becomes a key redistricting state in 2011, thus both parties covet the Governorship. So, this small state again figures to play a sizable role in next year’s election. Jim Ellis is a former political advisor to the House Republican majority and currently provides election analysis for clients of the PRIsm Information Network. With Bennet Kelley he has formed Filibanter, to provide live presentations and media interviews combining political filibustering and banter. -
December 07, 2009
Jordan Lieberman
Campaigns & Elections' Politics magazine today broadened its reach to all Latin America with the launch of its Spanish-language edition. In January 2010, Politics magazine will be distributed to Spanish-speaking political professionals, candidates, and public affairs executives.
Circulation for the Latin American edition of Politics magazine will be 25,000. “Politics is read in nearly forty countries. We are pleased to have developed a new editorial product that adapts to the conditions on the ground, while maintaining the high standard set by thirty years of publishing,” said Jordan Lieberman, magazine publisher. Campaigns & Elections' Politics magazine today broadened its reach to all Latin America with the launch of its Spanish-language edition. In January 2010, Politics magazine will be distributed to Spanish-speaking political professionals, candidates, and public affairs executives.
Circulation for the Latin American edition of Politics magazine will be 25,000. “Politics is read in nearly forty countries. We are pleased to have developed a new editorial product that adapts to the conditions on the ground, while maintaining the high standard set by thirty years of publishing,” said Jordan Lieberman, magazine publisher. The Latin American edition of Politics will borrow from parts of the US version, as well as develop unique content that will be written by Latin American experts. “This project brings together the collective knowledge of leading political professionals in order to expand the concept of the political consultancy in Latin America," commented Israel Navarro, Associate Editor. The Editorial Advisory Board, in development, currently includes: Christopher Arterton, Jose Luis Sanchis, Ralph Murphine, Aleix Sanmartin, Luis Matos, Manuel Mora y Araujo, Roberto Izurieta, Jaime Duran, Mauricio De Vengoechea, Eduardo Gamarra, Gisela Rubach, Cesar Martinez and Rafael Reyes Arce. Additional founding sponsors include SegarraTeres Group. Founded in 1980 by Stanley Foster Reed, Campaigns & Elections’ Politics magazine is published 13 times per year and covers the strategies, techniques and personalities of modern politics. It is read by thousands of federal, state and local elected officials, candidates for public office, party activists, issue campaigners, political consultants, campaign staffs, lobbyists, PAC directors, university professors, news reporters and numerous behind-the-scenes opinion makers. #### For more information: Israel Navarro (inavarro@politicsmagazine.com) (Click here to read the announcement in Spanish.) -
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In case you didn't know, there is a special election today in Massachusetts with a lot riding on it. Republican state Sen. Scott Brown is attempting what will likely go down as the biggest upset in political history by beating Attorney General Martha Coakley in the special election for Ted Kennedy's Senate seat.
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